Coming off the Bottom

Are the good times really over for good?
Recently, for the first time since 2012 we have seen the 5-year bond market climb back up over 2.0%. Based on amazing employment numbers and the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will raise rates on January 17, the bond market has continued a climb out of the basement and maybe running full steam uphill in response to a better economy.
Let’s look at the last 10-years of bonds and how they correlated to the 5-yr. fixed mortgage rate because it is still the choice of most Canadians as it is a stable place to build your home budgets around. In 2007 the 5-year bond was at 4.13% and the 5-year benchmark rate 6.65%. Follow the melt down that started to happen in 2008 the bond slowly but surely began to sink and by 2012 the 5-yr. bond was at 1.25% and the bench mark 5 yr. rate was at 5.29%. But wait we weren’t done; in 2015 the bond sunk all the way to .65% but the bench mark rate was still at 4.74%, if you took that rate at the branch you really paid too much as we were almost at 2.25% for standard feature 5 year fixed at that time.
So now turn the corner and we see that the bond is on its way back up. We come into 2018 with it having climbed all the way back to 2% almost an 8-year high and of course Governor Poloz has already had the bench mark at 4.99 so I don’t think it will be long before we see the bench mark reset again. Will it be long before the new qualifying numbers are 6% again, still some factors to watch, NAFTA, employment, world markets, price of tea in China, price of oil in Alberta.

– by Len Lane